Death of PC: Fact or Myth?

PC: Are its Days Numbered?

Is the ubiquitous personal computer (PC) slowly becoming a relic of the past – something that will soon be delegated to the dustbins of technology? If so, it will be poetic justice indeed for this extremely useful device – which had usurped the roles of so many technologies and gadgets over the last few decades. Or is it too soon to write an obituary and the PC will be back, a la Mark Twain who once famously proclaimed “the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated”.

Yet, the technological grapevine has been recently abuzz with speculations over the continued viability of PC and its relevance in the future world. A particular school of thought strongly believes that PCs are on their way out – though this process may take some time – probably over a decade. Let us explore the signals that may have contributed to this position, and take a brief peek into the future of PC.

Tablet Sales Growth - Concern for PC Sales

One of the biggest blows to the PC has come from the introduction and very rapid rise in popularity of tablets – especially since the introduction of iPad.  Already, observers have started using words like “post –PC” devices to describe many of Apples offerings. And a few months back, while unveiling the iPad 3, Apple CEO had also revealed data that surprised everyone – that in Q4 of 2011, more iPad tablets were sold than any other PC device by a single manufacturer! Add to it the fact that while iPad sales have chalked a growth rate of 15% on a YOY basis, PCs have only grown by 2%. This means that the gap will only widen.

IPad is not the only tablet that hurt PC growth – a number of tablets that followed it have contributed their bit – albeit to different degrees. For example, the Kindle e-reader from Amazon has grown into a favorite of book lovers who like to carry a library with them. This would have been the purview of laptops – but Kindles have taken that away. A host of other sophisticated tablets – such as Samsung Galaxy with its multi touch interface, Samsung Note, Google Nexus etc have consistently nibbled away at many of the PC functions – probably even leading to lower sales.

Blue Screen of Death 

The rise of mobile OS, especially Android has been another significant blow to the PC industry. Available at an attractive price of ZERO, Android has been the driving force behind the low cost and increased popularity of tablets – especially of the affordable variety. A whole new multibillion industry of apps development has cropped up around Android and Apple’s OS – and that means quite a significant share of dedicated brainpower too.

Just by sheer happenstance, user habits are changing too – contributing to further downfall of PC. We have become more mobile, demanding more of devices that can help us to work or entertain while on the move – thus creating more demand for post –PC devices, like iPad, tablets, iPods etc. The tablets and Smartphones have usurped many of the functions that were traditionally performed on the PC – for example, social networking, video conferencing and even file sharing.

A number of infrastructure side developments will also potentially render PC useless. For example, cloud computing will take data storage and applications away from PC, reducing its need further. Also, the greater availability of cheaper bandwidth, and development of new, faster wireless technologies such as 4G will further contribute to its diminishing demand.

Not only post PC gadgets, many older, traditional devices are also challenging the role of PCs. For example, the current generation of Smart TVs has made a strong claim to take back the entertainment ground that it had previously lost to PCs. The new Smart TVs aid the user in web surfing, social networking, and streaming movies from the internet – further drawing away a number of PC users.

Probably a ray of hope for PC industry comes from the business and enterprise users – a group with different buying dynamics than the normal personal users. Perhaps a huge investment that has already been sunk in hardware acquisition and network creation will keep the enterprises tied to the PC industry – at least for the time being. However, some businesses have already started buying tablets to connect their employees – starting a possible trend. In the individual buyer segment, the preference is clearly shifting from PCs to tablets, and other “post-PC” devices. On this front, at least, the PC seems to be fighting a lonely, and a losing battle.